Heating demand
Below normalUS heating degree days (propane-weighted)
Weekly heating degree days weighted by each region's propane-heating households, from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The weather driver of propane heating demand.
Data through week of Oct 26, 2026 · source last checked Oct 31, 2026 · page revised Oct 30, 2026
Cite
- Weekly HDD
About this data
- Source
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, weekly heating degree day summary
- Series
- Propane (LP gas) household-weighted heating degree days
- Basis
- Population-weighted by propane-heating household share
- Geography
- United States
- Unit
- HDD
- Calculation
- Weekly total
- Last observation
- week of Oct 26, 2026
- Update frequency
- Weekly
Season to date, propane-weighted heating degree days are running 34% below normal.
Weekly propane-weighted heating degree days fell to 59, down 4.8% from the prior week. Season to date, propane-weighted heating degree days are running 34% below normal.
| Period | Current | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week over week | 59 | 62 | -4.8% |
| vs 4 weeks ago | 59 | 24 | +145.8% |
| Year over year | 59 | 92 | -35.9% |
| vs 5-yr median | 59 | 70 | -15.7% |
| Heating year | Week ending | Season to date (HDD) | Normal to date | vs normal | Full season (HDD) | Full season vs normal | Coldest week (HDD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 (so far) | Oct 27, 2026 | 217 | 328 | 34% below | in progress | – | – |
| 2025-26 | Oct 28, 2025 | 250 | 341 | 27% below | 4,420 | 8% below | 291 (Jan 27, 2026) |
| 2024-25 | Oct 29, 2024 | 246 | 354 | 31% below | 4,494 | 7% below | 265 (Jan 21, 2025) |
| 2023-24 | Oct 30, 2023 | 287 | 367 | 22% below | 4,224 | 13% below | 292 (Jan 22, 2024) |
| 2022-23 | Oct 24, 2022 | 290 | 292 | 1% below | 4,599 | 4% below | 283 (Dec 26, 2022) |
| 2021-22 | Oct 25, 2021 | 169 | 304 | 44% below | 4,478 | 7% below | 254 (Jan 31, 2022) |
Each heating year runs July 1 to June 30. Season to date is CPC's cumulative propane-weighted total through the week ending on the date shown, the week closest to this page's latest reading in each year. Normal is CPC's normal for the same span. The coldest week is the largest seven-day total of the year.
How to read propane-weighted heating degree days
A heating degree day measures how cold a day was against a 65 degree Fahrenheit baseline. The day's temperature is the average of its high and low, and every degree that average falls below 65 counts as one degree day, so a day averaging 40 degrees counts 25 and a day at 65 or warmer counts zero. The weekly figure on this page adds up seven of those days. It climbs with the cold and sits near zero through the summer, when there is no heating load to measure, and the heating year it accumulates over runs from July 1 to June 30.
The series comes from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which estimates daily temperatures for the 344 climate divisions of the lower 48 states from about 200 weather stations and then weights them up into state, regional and national figures. CPC's headline national number weights by population. The line on this page is CPC's propane version: the same procedure CPC documents for its gas, oil and electric heating series, with regions weighted by the number of households that heat with bottled, tank or LP gas. Cold weather where propane heating is common therefore counts for more than the same cold where few homes burn it. CPC's degree day explanation sets out the method.
Read each week against its normal rather than against the week before, because the seasonal climb alone makes almost every autumn week look colder than the last. For the week through Oct 27, 2026, the propane-weighted total was 59 HDD, 24 below the CPC normal of 83. Season to date, counting from July 1, it stands at 217 against a normal of 328. Early in the season the totals are small and percentages swing wildly; the season-to-date total against normal becomes the steadier read once weekly totals are large.
Heating degree days are the weather half of propane demand. A colder-than-normal stretch means more gallons burned in every propane-heated home and a faster draw on US propane stocks, and a mild one slows the draw. How that draw meets inventory and exports is the mechanism behind the seasonal price rise in why propane prices rise in winter. For a single house, the propane usage calculator scales a normal-winter estimate by how far the season-to-date reading here is running above or below normal.
Common questions
Is this heating season colder or warmer than normal?
Warmer so far. Through the CPC week ending Oct 27, 2026, propane-weighted heating degree days total 217 for the 2026-27 heating year, against a normal of 328 (34% below). The latest week, 59 HDD, was 24 below its normal. In October and November the totals are small, so a few cold days move the percentage a lot.
How cold was last winter in propane-heated areas?
The 2025-26 heating year (July 1 to June 30) totaled 4,420 propane-weighted heating degree days, 8% below CPC's normal of 4,807. Each of the last 5 heating years finished below normal, from 4% below (2022-23) to 13% below (2023-24). A season below normal means fewer gallons burned per home than the normal-winter estimate in the propane usage calculator.
When does propane heating demand peak?
In the coldest week of the year. Over the last 5 heating years that week fell in January 4 times, December once: 291 HDD in the week ending Jan 27, 2026; 265 HDD in the week ending Jan 21, 2025; 292 HDD in the week ending Jan 22, 2024; 283 HDD in the week ending Dec 26, 2022; 254 HDD in the week ending Jan 31, 2022. Weeks like those burn the most gallons per home and pull hardest on US propane stocks.